After extensive groundwork, Pawan Kalyan realized that there is no favorable constituency left for him in Andhra Pradesh except Pithapuram to contest in the upcoming general elections. He has chosen that seat, considering the Kapu population in this constituency.
However, he is all set to lose the election without any second thought, as per the ground reports obtained based on firsthand surveys.
The reasons are mentioned below:
1. Kapus in this constituency do not vote based on caste. The last elections proved this fact. In the 2014 election, Dirababu Pendam, the Kapu leader who contested from YSRCP, lost the election by a wide margin of 47,000 votes as the majority of people, including Kapus, voted for SVSN Varma, the independent candidate from the Raju community.
Again in 2019, during the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy wave, Dorababu won the election against TDP's SVSN Varma, but the winning margin was not more than 15,000. On the other hand, Janasena Party's Seshu Kumari could only garner 28,000 votes to stand in third place.
2. Amidst this, if SVSN Varma contests independently, then Pawan's defeat is almost certain, as per local voters. Even if Varma aligns with Chandrababu's thought and decides to support Pawan Kalyan, he may still lose as the majority of voters will get split, as they wish to vote only for Varma, not for the one he endorses.
3. Alternatively, if Varma joins YSRCP, then Pawan Kalyan's fate will be uncertain.
4. Moreover, Pawan Kalyan lacks in poll management and electioneering. Candidates require a strong ground force and coordination between mandal-level and panchayat-level members of the party. Without that, no candidate can win unless there is a huge wave for their party or their main leader. Chiranjeevi lost the election in Palakollu because he lacked in this electioneering.
5. Though TDP workforce is expected to support Pawan Kalyan, they do not do it wholeheartedly as they feel that he would become deeply rooted if he comes to power in their region once, challenging their future.
So, by any means, Pawan Kalyan's defeat in Pithapuram is inevitable, as per the ground analysis.