Despite there being loud buzz over the so-called anti-incumbency on BRS government which led to a perception of possible resurrection of Congress party in Telangana, there is a big question mark over the latter’s chances of winning the election with decisive majority to form the government.
While the historical data suggesting that the Congress party has lost its ground in Telangana, the people’s perception is also not in favour of the opposition as a vast majority is still of the view that BRS will come back to power with comfortable margin.
The survey tracking the perception of people of Telangana across various cross sections of voters reveal that the Congress party is still lagging behind the BRS in terms of vote share. No doubt that Congress party gained a significant percentage of vote share when compared to previous election, but it is not sufficient to take over the reins of power from the BRS.
People perceptions:
While the BRS consolidated its vote share with a minimum of 40%, the Congress party’s highest winning perception was only 34%. This 6% margin is going to tilt the balance in favour of BRS even if it lost some of the seats in the ensuing election. As of now, the BRS is comfortably placed at winning 72 to 75 seats and Congress party could win only 36 seats out of 119 even if everything goes in its favour.
The margin of majority clearly indicating that the BRS is comfortably placed with at least 12 seats more than the magic number of 60 and the Congress would need 24 seats to pull it off which seems to be highly unlikely given the mood of people of Telangana.
Who are making the noise:
This leaves the question as to from where this buzz is coming in favour of Congress party. Certainly, some of the vocal sections have turned negative to BRS in the present election for various reasons and these vocal sections are making high decibel sound than their actual strength in terms of vote share. These include some of the unemployed youth who could not secure a government job all these years. They are particularly disappointed for the reason that they did not get the job they aspired for without going into the practical aspects of government recruitment. The cancellation of Group examinations due to litigations in high court and paper leak also had some impact on them which created this buzz.
Those who are making negative sound against BRS are mostly urban voters. But the situation in Hyderabad and its surrounding areas, other narratives dominating the perception of people and the unemployment is not at all an issue here. The loud sound that is emanating from these sections is majorly from Tier two cities where the BRS might face some backlash.
Why BRS is formidable in rural areas
On the other hand, the rural voter in Telangana appears to be more contend with the performance of the BRS government. Especially the farmers who are getting financial support from the government in the form of Raithu Bandhu, elderly people who are getting enhanced pension to lead a respectable life without depending on anyone, the single woman, widowed and differently abled persons who saw a sea of change in terms of their quality of life with respectable financial assistance from the government are rallying behind BRS. These sections forms majority in rural areas and the BRS is looking formidable with their support.
The qualitative change that the BRS government brought in health, education and rural infrastructure also playing a positive role for BRS. The social transformative initiatives launched for BCs, SCs and minorities also created strong foundations for BRS in rural areas. These sections are mostly silent, and their voices are rarely heard in the election campaigns.
Doubts over Congress promises
As the results over past 10 weeks continue to show positive edge for BRS, it looks almost certain that it will come victorious for third time in a row. Though the Congress party is claiming that it has made inroads into BRS bastions, it is most likely to be a retracement of some of its lost ground which is not enough to win the election. Another factor that will cost very dearly for Congress is that its infighting among its leaders and its failure to present a strong leadership which can deliver the promises it has made.
Moreover, a vast majority of people are of the view that the Congress party’s promises are unrealistic and given its performance in Karnataka after winning the election people are of the opinion that these promises are made of desperation to come to power and not believing that it can actually deliver those promises even if voted to power. This disbelief of people is going to keep the Congress away from power. As the credibility crisis looming large with the reports coming from Karnataka, Congress has to pull off a miracle to win the election in Telangana.