We have observed numerous exit poll surveys predicting the victory of Congress in the recently concluded Telangana elections. However, a crucial aspect to note is the narrow margin of victory projected by most polls.
With the exception of a couple of surveys, namely Chanakya Strategies projecting 67-78 seats and Smart Poll indicating a win of 70-82 seats for Congress, all other exit polls, such as Aura (58-67), Jan Ki Baat (48-64), Peoples Pulse (62-72), and Race (57-67), forecasted only marginal wins for Congress. It is known that 60 is the magic figure to attain majority and be eligible to form the government.
In the event of such a scenario, it should be acknowledged that technically, it is a victory for Congress, but a significant threat looms.
For instance, if Revanth Reddy is considered for the position of Chief Minister, the potential drama could unfold from the BJP side. They might attempt to lure Komati Reddy Venkat Reddy, securing the support of 20 MLAs from Congress to make him the Chief Minister on the BJP's behalf.
BRS's support for the BJP leadership suggests a strategic move to prevent power from falling into Congress's hands, making it an enticing opportunity for anyone capable of acquiring 20 MLAs. Komatireddy might need to spend significant resources to achieve this, but he appears financially capable. Thus the BJP-BRS government may form in Telangana ditching Congress in spite of its victory.
Alternatively, if the Congress high command designates Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka as Chief Minister, the BJP could conspire to lure Revanth Reddy to win 20 MLAs to join their ranks. Revanth Reddy's lifelong dream of becoming Chief Minister might lead him to switch allegiance if Congress fails to fulfill that aspiration.
However, there is a glimmer of hope for Congress in this scenario. If Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka is announced as Chief Minister and the BJP attempts to lure Revanth or another Congress member, the BJP risks being branded as an anti-SC party. This could have repercussions on their image and impact the upcoming MP elections in Telangana during the coming summer. Therefore, the BJP may reconsider before making such a move of Mallu's name is announced for the CM's position.
Unless Congress secures more than 80 seats, the specter of political drama persists. The final result will reveal the loyalty of Congress members in critical situations.
Kiran Sharma