Nearly a year before the 2024 assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh, the chief minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy reportedly received a sealed envelope from Union home minister Amit Shah during a visit to New Delhi.
Those days, the BJP national leadership was still in good relations (of course, it still has) with Jagan. The document, based on Central intelligence assessments, warned that the ruling YSR Congress Party was in a precarious political position.
According to the report, if elections were held immediately, the YSRCP might struggle to secure even 30 to 40 seats in the 175-member assembly. Shah is said to have advised Jagan to tread cautiously.
However, the then chief minister reportedly discounted the warning. Reason: Jagan was relying more on privately commissioned surveys conducted by his close aide and senior YSRCP legislator Chevireddy Bhaskar Reddy.
It was an open secret in the party that Chevireddy had the habit of commissioning independent surveys (not exactly on behalf of the party) and give periodical reports to Jagan.
Chevireddy is believed to have assured Jagan that his extensive field-level assessment—conducted through hundreds of surveyors across social segments—indicated a sweeping victory of at least 161 seats for the YSRCP. He reportedly argued that central agencies lacked grassroots insight compared to his local intelligence.
The surveys commissioned by Chevireddy during the five-year tenure painted an overwhelmingly positive picture for the ruling party. But when the ballots were finally counted, the electoral outcome reportedly proved drastically different.
According to sources, Chevireddy had stopped conducting surveys after the election results; and was busy fighting the legal battles against the government. He was implicated in the Rs 3,500 crore liquor scam and was jailed for several months.
Now, after recently returning from jail, Chevireddy has reportedly resumed his proximity to the party leadership at the Tadepalli camp office and has started submitting the survey reports again.
According to sources, Chevireddy submitted another internal assessment to Jagan a couple of days ago, claiming that recent developments—including arrests in the liquor case, the detention of former minister Ambati Rambabu, and the Tirumala laddu adulteration controversy—have generated public sympathy in favour of YSRCP.
He allegedly suggested that more party leaders facing arrest in other districts could further consolidate sympathy. According to his latest projections, the party is once again poised to win 161 seats.
However, several senior leaders are said to be privately uneasy. Having suffered once due to overreliance on optimistic surveys, many reportedly question the prudence of embracing another wave of favourable projections.
Yet, no leader has the guts to explain the ground reality to the party president!