The miserable show put up by the TDP in the recent gram panchayat elections and just-concluded municipal elections in Andhra Pradesh has clearly established the fact that the party is on the brink of a total collapse into an irrecoverable position.
Analysts say the TDP might not remain a political force by 2024 elections unless something miracle happens in the party.
Naidu will have neither age nor patience to fight a formidable force like YSR Congress party headed by Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy. The TDP will face a serious leadership crisis by then.
In the next three years, the ruling YSR Congress party, too, may have to witness anti-incumbency factor at least to some extent, because Jagan Mohan Reddy will definitely find it difficult to sustain his welfare agenda due to financial crisis.
But, since there is no powerful alternative to the YSRC, the people may have no other option but to vote Jagan back to power for a second term. The absence of an alternative (also known as TINA factor in politics) will be a blessing in disguise for Jagan.
So, there is likely to be a huge political vacuum in Andhra Pradesh in the next two or three years. The Bharatiya Janata Party hopes to fill this vacuum, but it has no takers in Andhra, because of the role it has played in the bifurcation of the combined AP and also for denial of special category status to the state.
Analysts say it is here that Jana Sena Party headed by Pawan Kalyan stands some chance, if he comes out of the clutches of the BJP.
All said and done, he can still exploit the Kapu vote bank and if he can put in his heart and soul into the party, he can emerge as a powerful political alternative in the state.
“Pawan might not be able to come to power by 2024, but if can fill the vacuum created by the TDP, he can expect to grab power at least in the next five years. For that, Pawan has to a lot of hard work, grow independently and be among the people, instead of making occasional appearances,” the analyst added.