Many people are betting on the Andhra Pradesh election results. They know the return ratio is higher for those betting on YCP's win compared to Kutami's win.
This indicates that betting on YCP is riskier, promising bigger returns, while betting on Kutami is less risky, offering smaller returns.
For example, the betting return ratio for 'Kutami's Win' is 1:1, while for 'YCP's Win' it is 1:2.
Given this scenario, some people who believe YCP will win are swayed by widespread propaganda and start betting on Kutami's win.
What's the danger here? Who might fall into this trap?
Consider the 2019 election results when Lagadapati Rajagopal's exit poll numbers influenced many to bet on TDP's win due to his successful prediction track record. However, they all lost big as YCP won. Obvioulsy, those who conducted betting were benefitted. There was also a gossip at that time that even Lagadapati was part of that game.
Now, without Lagadapati Rajagopal's survey, numerous psephologists are giving their predictions. It's possible that those conducting the betting are spreading 'opposite talk' to draw bets towards the losing side, ensuring they make big money.
This Goebbels-like propaganda that Kutami will win is spread by selected psephologists and word of mouth by some selected individuals at the village and town levels, resulting in a heavier betting concentration on 'Kutami's Win' compared to YCP's win.
If this scenario holds true, those betting on 'Kutami's Win' might lose, benefiting the betting organizers. Even after paying the winners who bet on 'YCP's Win' at 1:2 ratio, they still make substantial profits.
We need to see what the official exit polls say on June 1st evening, and what unfolds on June 4th.