The landslide victory registered by YSR Congress party headed by Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh by winning 151 out of 175 Assembly seats and 22 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats has scripted a new history in the state politics.
The TDP has virtually been decimated in the elections, getting restricted to 23 assembly and three Lok Sabha seats. This has led to the talk that the TDP might get disintegrated soon and reduced to an insignificant political force in the state, leaving a huge political vacuum in the state by 2024.
Soon after the election results, Bharatiya Janata Party national spokesman and Rajya Sabha member G V L Narasimha Rao said the TDP would fade away in the state politics gradually and the BJP would emerge as an alternative political force in the state.
Many other analysts also expressed a similar opinion saying since TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu is getting old, he might not have the patience and energy to revive the party and bring back its lost glory by 2024.
Jana Sena has wasted its chance to fill the vacuum due to Pawan Kalyan’s inexperience and inconsistent political stand. So, BJP has a chance to grow as an alternative in the state.
But, this looks a very far-fetched thinking. One cannot underestimate the TDP and rule out its chances of bouncing back for the simple reason that it has a very strong cadre base and still has its own vote bank.
In the recent elections, it has got a vote share of 39.18% against the YSRCP’s 49.5%.
On the other hand, the BJP could get only 0.95 per cent of vote share, which is lesser than the percentage of votes polled under NOTA (1.5 per cent). In fact, the Congress got a better vote share (1.29 per cent).
Even in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP could get only 0.84 per cent of votes. Despite Modi wave sweeping across the country, it could not touch Andhra, where YSRC won 22 Lok Sabha seats.
It clearly showed that the people of Andhra have rejected the BJP outright and the TDP is still the only option for YSR.
The BJP leadership is hoping that it can attract second-rung leaders of the TDP, thereby weakening the latter.
But this is also far-fetched thinking, as the disgruntled TDP leaders would prefer going to YSRC, if at all they want to defect, or stay back in the TDP to wait for their chance.