Determining the presence of a political wave traditionally involves surveys and analysis conducted by psephologists.
However, relying solely on surveys, which are based on small sample sizes, can sometimes yield incorrect results due to potential manipulation, bias, or human error.
A novel approach to gauge public sentiment has emerged through BARC ratings of news channels. This method minimizes the influence of human error, as ratings are based on viewership during the election season.
It's a psychological phenomenon that individuals tend to gravitate towards channels or websites they prefer. They engage longer with content that resonates with their taste and thought, while quickly skipping the content that does not.
Taking this into account, with the latest BARC ratings, the significant YSRCP wave in the state is confirmed as the election approaches.
BARC statistics reveal that the top three news channels with the highest ratings—NTV, TV9, and Sakshi—have been airing programs supportive of YSRCP.
Their ratings have seen a remarkable increase from February-March to the third week of April: NTV Telugu (67 to 71.5), TV9 (69 to 70.5), and Sakshi (31 to 45.8).
Conversely, the next three channels in the overall rankings—TV5 News, ABN Andhra Jyothi, and ETV Andhra Pradesh—have experienced a decline in ratings during the same period: 37 to 34.5, 25 to 26.2, and 24 to 22.7, respectively.
The sample size of viewership for television channels in Andhra Pradesh is significantly larger than that of traditional surveys conducted by various organizations.
Thus, BARC ratings suggest that people are spending more time watching channels aligned with YSRCP compared to those aligned with TDP.
While pre-poll predictions based on traditional surveys are often met with skepticism, the latest BARC ratings clearly indicate a significant YSRCP wave in the state, potentially leading to surprising results on June 4th.
"I have been of the view that the YSRCP may win with a majority of seats, ranging from 100-110. However, considering the BARC ratings, I feel a shocking result is in the offing. I wouldn't be surprised if YSRCP wins around 155 seats, given this trend," said a senior director of a TV channel.