Even as various media houses and independent agencies release their exit polls and post-poll survey results of the assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Andhra Pradesh, analysts suggest that two factors will determine the fate of the political parties.
One factor is the voting pattern of women voters, and the other is whether there has been a transfer of votes among the alliance partners of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
According to an analysis by a media house, women voters outnumbered men in Andhra Pradesh. Targeted welfare schemes that put more money in their hands apparently motivated them to vote in large numbers.
Though it cannot be definitively stated that women voters exclusively supported the YSRCP due to Jagan’s welfare schemes, general trends indicate such a pattern. Consequently, the YSRCP is hoping that women voters will come to its rescue.
Regarding the transfer of votes among the NDA alliance partners, it is believed to be a major deciding factor for the alliance's success.
In the 2019 elections, the YSRCP secured 49.89 percent of the votes, while the TDP garnered 40.19 percent, Jana Sena 5.8 percent, and BJP only 0.89 percent.
This time, the TDP, BJP, and Jana Sena contested the elections together, while the YSRCP competed independently. Assuming they retain their respective vote shares, the combined vote share of the NDA allies would be around 47 percent, and the YSRCP could scrape through with its 49.89 percent.
However, if there was anti-incumbency sentiment, the YSRCP vote share would decrease while that of the NDA would increase.
Additionally, there is speculation that the Y S Sharmila-led Congress might further erode the YSRCP vote bank. In that scenario, the YSRCP could lose power, albeit by a narrow margin.
“This is possible only if there was a complete transfer of votes between the TDP and the Jana Sena, the TDP and the BJP, and the BJP and the other two allies. If it did not happen fully, then the NDA might not come to power,” the analyst said.