If anybody expected that former Vijayawada MP Lagadapati Rajagopal would predict the defeat of Telugu Desam Party in the 2019 assembly elections, he would be thoroughly disappointed.
The exit poll survey results released by RG-Flash (Raja Gopal – Forum for Legal Ambulance Social and Health services) team on Sunday evening on the outcome of the assembly and Lok Sabha elections is completely on expected lines.
The Lagadapati team predicted that TDP headed by N Chandrababu Naidu would return to power in AP for a second time by winning 100 seats (plus or minus 10), whereas YSR Congress party headed by Y S Jaganmohan Reddy would have to sit in the opposition by winning 72 seats (plus or minus 7). Others (perhaps Jana Sena Party) will get only three seats (plus or minus two).
With regard to Lok Sabha elections, as expected, Lagadapati predicted that the TDP would get 15 seats (plus or minus two), whereas YSRC would get 10 seats (plus or minus two). Jana Sena may get one.
For the assembly elections, the TDP will get 43-45 per cent of vote share, whereas YSRC would get 40-42 per cent and Jana Sena would get 10-12 per cent. This is more or less similar for Lok Sabha elections as well.
Lagadapati said the TDP was overwhelmingly strong among women voters and YSRC among the male voters, while Jana Sena was strong among youth voters.
“There is a pro-government feeling among the electorate, though there is some negative feeling against some ruling aprty MLAs. While vocal voters supported YSRC, whereas silent voters voted for the TDP,” he said.
Interestingly, it is not exactly an exit-poll survey but a post-poll survey conducted by the Lagadpati team from April 12 to April 21, covering 38 randomly selected assembly segments.
Survey is conducted among around 1200 electorate per assembly segment covering various cross section of people.
Total sample size is around 50,000 for the entire state in the randomly selected 38 assembly segments, he said.