Despite the fact that betting on election results remains illegal in India, heavy money is said to be changing hands through underground networks and offshore online platforms on the outcome of assembly elections in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
According to people who are closely observing these betting trends in the online markets, big money is changing hands based on the campaign momentum, candidate strength, alliance arithmetic, and historical voting patterns.
The outcome of the elections has become all the more unpredictable after the first phase of the elections in these two states held on April 23.
Especially in West Bengal, both the ruling All India Trinamul Congress (AITC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party are exuding confidence, making it tough for the punters.
According to the charts doing rounds in the online sites, it is going to be a closely fought contest in West Bengal and a clear advantage for the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu.
In West Bengal, the neck-and-neck contest is said to be reflecting in the betting trends. The punters are divided between the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC)-led alliance and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance.
Informal betting ranges suggest that TMC alliance is likely to get 148–151 seats in the 294 seat-assembly, whereas those who bet in favour of the BJP are hopeful that the saffron party, too, would get 138–141 seats. This narrow margin between the two parties signals significant uncertainty, with neither side seen as a decisive frontrunner.
According to an NDTV report, the US-based prediction platform Polymarket has revealed that more than US $2 million was bet by the punters on the West Bengal election outcome with 52% stakes on the BJP and 47% on the TMC.
In Tamil Nadu, however, the sentiment is stronger in favour of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance. Betting trends in Tamil Nadu suggest a more predictable outcome, with the DMK emerging as a clear favourite.
Market estimates place the DMK alliance in the range of 145-148 seats in the 234-member assembly. However, the new entrant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) headed by actor Vijay may reduce the victory margin of the DMK considerably.