The Iran–USA peace talks have failed in Pakistan, and the situation now appears grim. Comments about the escalation of war are tightening from both sides. So who is the biggest loser in this situation? It is Pakistan.
The country finds itself stuck between Saudi Arabia and its own citizens.
It is known that Pakistan has a military treaty with Saudi Arabia which states that any attack on Saudi Arabia should be treated as an attack on Pakistan.
According to the understanding, Pakistan is expected to retaliate against the attacking nation immediately and also support Saudi Arabia with arms.
When Pakistan signed this treaty, it may have believed that if trouble ever came, it would come from India, and Saudi Arabia would help Pakistan. It likely never imagined that Saudi Arabia could face a war threat from another country like Iran.
Pakistan agreed to this arrangement in exchange for significant financial assistance to support its debt-ridden economy.
However, if Pakistan sends support to Saudi Arabia in a conflict against Iran, a civil war within Pakistan could become a real possibility because of the Shia Muslim population in the country.
In the past, when the United States attacked Iran and killed Ayotollah Khamenie, Shia Muslims in Pakistan protested strongly and even attacked U.S. embassies.
If they perceive that their own government is supporting Saudi Arabia against Iran, there is a strong possibility that public anger could intensify and lead to widespread unrest.
Such a scenario could resemble the kind of public upheaval seen in places like Bangladesh and Nepal, where citizens revolted against their governments.
On the other hand, if Pakistan remains silent to avoid internal conflict and does not support Saudi Arabia, it could be seen as breaching its agreement.
This would likely invite Saudi Arabia’s anger and could severely affect Pakistan’s chances of receiving financial support from the kingdom in the future.
At the same time, Pakistan is already facing multiple challenges. Tensions with the Afghan Taliban continue along the border, and internal conflict persists with the Balochistan Liberation Army.
Economically, the country is struggling with deep financial troubles, and instability around its borders only worsens the situation. Inflation has soared, and many citizens are already frustrated with the economic hardship.
In such a fragile environment, the failure of the Iran–USA talks places Pakistan in an extremely difficult and risky position.