Will it be 2009 or 2014 scenario in AP?

The long gap between the polling day and the counting day of elections in Andhra Pradesh has not only created tension among the political parties in the state but also led to widespread speculation about the outcome.

The increase in poll percentage compared to 2019, along with the large-scale participation of voters from neighboring states and even from abroad, has created confusion among poll pundits, who are finding it difficult to gauge the voters' sentiment.

However, there is consensus on one point: the contest was fiercely competitive and not one-sided. The balance could swing either way – towards the YSR Congress Party or the Telugu Desam Party.

Some poll analysts predict a repeat of the 2014 scenario. Back then, the TDP, in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party and with the support of the Jana Sena Party, won 108 seats while the YSRCP secured 67 seats. Readmore!

Veteran Congress leader and former Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee president N Raghuveera Reddy suggested that whichever party comes to power, the victory margin will be very thin – around just 95 seats.

“There is no strong wave in favor of any single party. It will be a tight finish,” he said.

Raghuveera hinted that the odds might favor YSRCP.

“I think the 2009 scenario might get repeated this time. In the 2009 elections, the ruling Congress party came to power with a slender margin of six seats above the absolute majority mark,” he said.

According to him, the YSRCP might come to power for a second successive term with a slender margin of six or seven seats more than the absolute majority mark. While it needs a minimum of 88 seats to return to power, it might secure 94 or 95 seats, Raghuveera observed.

He also predicted that around 100 MLAs would be elected with a slender margin of less than 10,000 votes.

“Definitely, it is a close fight,” he said.

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