Jagan@4: A big challenge in election year!

YSR Congress party president and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy will be completing four years in office and entering the fifth and last year of his first term on Tuesday.

The last four years have been, more or less, a smooth ride for the young and dynamic chief minister. He has been able to consolidate his position firmly by winning all the by-elections to the Lok Sabha and the state assembly, including the recent by-election to the Atmakur assembly seat in Nellore district. Moreover, his party has secured over 90 percent of the local body elections.

However, the coming year, being an election year, presents a significant challenge for Jagan. He aims to not only sustain his welfare programs but also make strategic political moves to secure a second term in power.

While Jagan has proclaimed his party's slogan as "Why not 175?"—referring to the total number of assembly seats—he acknowledges that achieving this goal won't be easy. Retaining power will require him and his party to face formidable challenges.

Despite Jagan's reliance on his welfare schemes, known as Navaratnaalu (nine jewels), to gain power for a second term, there are various factors that will ultimately determine his party's fate. Of particular concern is the strong anti-incumbency sentiment against several sitting YSRC MLAs in their respective constituencies.

Jagan has been actively engaging with the public, appealing to them to vote for his party based on the benefits they have received from his welfare schemes. However, he must ensure that the sitting MLAs regain the trust and confidence of the people. Otherwise, he may need to make significant changes within the party, replacing the existing MLAs with fresh faces. The local MLAs have faced criticism for various reasons, including corruption, lack of responsiveness, and their inability to address local issues.

Over the past year, the chief minister has intensified his public outreach through programs like Gadapa Gadapaku Prabhutvam, Jagananna Ku Chebudam, and Jagananna Maa Bhavishyathu. While the overall response to these programs has been positive, some local MLAs have faced resistance from the people.

Nevertheless, Jagan has managed to strengthen his support among weaker sections of society by actively distributing plots of land and constructing houses. The recent distribution of over 50,000 plots in the Amaravati capital region has generated significant goodwill for Jagan.

On the legal front, Jagan has faced setbacks in the past, but recent months have been more favorable. His government approached the Supreme Court to challenge the high court's ruling on March 3, 2022, affirming Amaravati as the sole capital region of the state. Although the Supreme Court did not grant the expected relief in the form of a stay on the high court judgment, Jagan achieved a partial victory as the time limit for completing developmental works in Amaravati was lifted.

Jagan has been planning to shift his base to Visakhapatnam and, despite the pending case in the Supreme Court, announced that he would move to the port city in September.

With only around 11 months remaining until the elections, the chief minister is now striving to project his government as investor-friendly and pro-industrial. Initiatives such as the Global Investors' Summit held in Visakhapatnam earlier this year and the inauguration of ports and the Adani Data Centre are aimed at redefining the government's priorities.

However, the extent to which these endeavors will benefit Jagan politically remains uncertain, as analysts have raised questions about their impact.

The growing public response to TDP chief N. Chandrababu Naidu and his son Nara Lokesh, who has been on a marathon padayatra, is also a matter of concern for Jagan. Additionally, the possibility of an alliance between the TDP and Jana Sena, headed by power star Pawan Kalyan, is an issue that will impact the prospects of the political parties in the upcoming elections.

Furthermore, the ongoing CBI case regarding the murder of Jagan's uncle, Y.S. Vivekananda Reddy, on March 15, 2019, has been an embarrassment for Jagan, as the agency is targeting his cousin and Kadapa MP, Y.V. Avinash Reddy.

Another major challenge Jagan has had to face is the implementation of the pay revision commission for state government employees. The commission announced a pay hike of around 24 percent, which has imposed an additional burden of over Rs 10,000 crore annually on the state exchequer. The employees expressed their discontent by protesting against the government regarding PRC arrears, DA arrears, and other issues. Although they withdrew their strike plan, the discontent among the employees persists.

In summary, the next year will be politically challenging for Jagan and administratively demanding.

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