US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed H-1B visa restrictions could impact India's economy, potentially supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) initiative.
A report by the State Bank of India (SBI) suggests that while stricter visa rules might increase costs for Indian IT firms operating in the US, they could also encourage India to focus more on domestic manufacturing and economic independence.
"Tighter H-1B regulations may increase costs for Indian IT companies in the US, likely reducing labor mobility and pressuring firms to hire locally at higher wages," the SBI report stated. "On the flip side, this shift may allow India to push forward with reforms in domestic production, self-sufficiency, and foreign investment."
Understanding the H-1B Visa Program
The H-1B visa program allows US employers to hire skilled foreign professionals for specialized roles requiring specific qualifications.
According to the US Department of Labor, the program is designed to fill positions where qualified local workers are not available.
Annually, the government caps new H-1B visas at 65,000, with an additional 20,000 set aside for individuals with a US master’s degree or higher. Workers in education, non-profits, or research sectors are exempt from this cap.
Trump's Stance on H-1B Visas
Trump has consistently criticized the H-1B program, arguing that it reduces job opportunities for American workers.
During his first term, H-1B visa rejection rates rose sharply, complicating hiring for Indian IT firms. In 2020, Trump’s administration attempted to increase minimum wage requirements for H-1B holders, though the move was blocked by US courts.
During Trump's previous term, about 1 million non-immigrant visas were issued each year. However, in 2023, the number of non-immigrant visas issued to Indians rose to around 1.4 million, according to the SBI report.
“As the US aims to protect its workforce, India may see an opportunity to strengthen domestic production and attract more inward investment,” the report noted.
Ajay Sharma, founder of Abhinav Immigration Services, believes Trump’s return could create new opportunities for Indians seeking legal immigration.
“Trump’s platform has emphasized deporting undocumented migrants, and with an estimated 10 million undocumented individuals in the US, his actions might create openings for skilled migrants. Indians, who largely use legal routes like the H-1B and F-1 visas, may benefit if the administration favors skilled over family-based immigration,” Sharma said.
“Trump has previously suggested introducing a points-based immigration system similar to Canada and Australia. If this approach is revived, it could open doors for skilled Indian migrants, as Trump views this system as economically beneficial compared to the current family-based structure,” he added.
Indians Dominate H-1B Visas
Indians represent the largest share of H-1B visa holders, according to the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). In 2023, Indians received 72.3% (279,000) of the total 386,000 H-1B visas, with Chinese nationals accounting for 11.7%.
The majority of these visas cover computer-related roles, which made up 65% of H-1B recipients in 2023.
Other fields include architecture and engineering (9.5%) and education (6%), with median salaries for H-1B holders reaching $118,000 in 2023.