No political party has come to power for a third consecutive term in the Telugu states – whether it was during the combined Andhra Pradesh or in Telangana state formed in 2014.
This trend is likely to get repeated in the upcoming assembly elections to Telangana state scheduled to be held on November 30, a survey conducted by Bengal-based organisation School of Politics.
According to this survey, Bharat Rashtra Samithi led by chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao is all set to lose the elections, amidst his national aspirations. The survey was done in the first week of October across all the 33 districts.
As per the survey, Congress is likely to win 59 to 67 seats with a vote share of 36.10%. The BRS will end up with 36-44 seats with voting percentage of 33.40, while the BJP may get 7-9 assembly seats with a vote share of 12.60% and the MIM will retain its 6-8 seats with a vote share of 18%.
In all probability, the Congress will manage to cross the absolute majority mark of 60 and form the next government in Telangana. The BRS will lose its huge vote share to the Congress and the BJP. Except in Hyderabad, the BRS is set to lose seats across the state.
The opinion poll said the Congress is set to decimate the BRS in reserved seats. There are a total 31 reserved seats, 19 for SC and 12 for ST. In the last elections, the BRS had won 21 seats out of these 31, but this time they are expected to win just around five seats; whereas Congress will be increasing their tally from 7 to 25 seats. The BJP is expected to win only one of the reserved seats in Northern Telangana.
In Hyderabad, however, the BRS and the MIM will retain their dominance. In the last election, they had won seven seats each out of 15 in Hyderabad. This time around, they are expected to win 6 seats each, while BJP is expected to win two seats. The Congress will get just one seat.
Hyderabad is the one region where Congress has not been able to make enough inroads.
However, the Congress is likely to sweep the seven districts along the Andhra border having 26 assembly seats. The party is likely to win 23 seats leaving just three seats to the BRS.
Similarly, the BJP and the Congress are gaining at the cost of BRS in seven districts bordering Maharashtra, consisting of 20 assembly seats. The BRS had swept this region last election winning 17 out of these 20 seats.
The growth of BJP and comeback of Congress are likely to restrict the BRS to only seven seats, majority of it coming from only one district - Nizamabad. The BJP is set to increase its tally from 0 to 4, and the Congress from 3 to 9 seats, the survey said.