Donald Trump, who has faced impeachment twice, attempted to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power after losing the 2020 presidential election, and is confronted with numerous charges in multiple criminal cases, could still make a comeback to the White House.
According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll of Republican voters, Trump leads his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination by nearly 40 percentage points, marking a remarkable resurgence for the one-term president who seemed defeated and humiliated three years ago.
Despite pleading not guilty in the criminal cases, Trump faces accusations of politically motivated charges. He is also moving closer to securing the Republican nomination, especially after a significant victory in Iowa on Jan. 15, prompting one of his few remaining rivals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, to exit the race, leaving only former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, to challenge Trump.
Several factors contribute to the possibility of Trump winning the November 2024 election against Democratic incumbent Joe Biden:
Unhappy Voters:
The public, including voters of color and young voters, expresses dissatisfaction with the economy. While the Biden White House emphasizes positive economic indicators, many voters perceive a lack of affordability in essential goods and services. Despite vague proposals, Republicans are viewed by a significant margin as better stewards of the economy.
Speaking to Fear:
Trump effectively addresses the concerns of many white Americans in an increasingly diverse and culturally progressive country. Issues such as crime, illegal immigration, and fears of losing ground resonate with voters, and Trump adeptly channels these fears while positioning himself as an outsider and savior.
Trump's Actions Not Disqualifying for Many Voters:
Despite criticism from various quarters, a substantial number of voters see Trump as a victim of a political witch hunt. Many Republicans would still support him even if convicted of a crime. Trump can point to his previous term and argue that the government machinery functioned, dispelling fears about his ability to govern.
Biden Gets All the Blame, No Credit:
The Biden administration struggles to convince the public that its job-creation policies have positively impacted their lives. Trump can capitalize on public dissatisfaction and present himself as an alternative, particularly with his non-interventionist stance contrasting Biden's more traditional foreign policy approach.
While Trump remains unpopular in many areas and demographics, and potential challenges such as divisive rhetoric and opposition from moderate Republicans and independent voters exist, his current standing, 10 months from Election Day, suggests a better chance of returning to the White House than at any point since leaving office.