YSR Congress party headed by chief minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy might be jubilant over the sorry state of affairs in the Telugu Desam Party following defection of four of its Rajya Sabha members into the Bharatiya Janata Party.
But, analysts say the disintegration of the TDP sounds a warning bell for the YSR Congress party as well.
According to them, the BJP has long-term plans for Andhra Pradesh and the party, which is trying engulf the TDP now, will not hesitate to decimate the YSR Congress party in future.
Right now, Jagan has been maintaining friendly relations with the BJP for more than one reason.
First, he has to get out of the cases foisted against him by the TDP and Congress in the past and it is not possible without the support of the BJP.
Secondly, it wants to destroy the TDP completely with the support of the BJP.
The defection of four TDP MPs into the BJP is part of the strategy and there is a talk that YSRC leader V Vijay Sai Reddy played a big role in these defections.
Strategically, Jagan has announced that he will not encourage defections from the TDP into the YSR Congress party and if at all, any MLA wants to defect, he should resign from his assembly membership.
But, the TDP MLAs who want to defect to the YSRC have no money or energy to contest the elections again. So, the best way is to defect to the BJP, which has no presence in the assembly.
That is said to be the joint strategy of Jagan and BJP. If two thirds of the TDP MLAs defect to the BJP, they would not face disqualification. That would be the first priority of the BJP.
But even if eight to 10 MLAs defect to the BJP, they would remain as a separate group affiliated to the BJP, so that they would not get disqualified.
In any case, the Speaker belongs to YSRC and if he uses his discretion like what his predecessor Kodela Sivaprasad did, they would continue to remain MLAs for another five years.
That might seem to be a big victory for the YSRC, since Naidu will lose leader of opposition status. But what YSRC leaders are forgetting that it will give a foothold to the BJP in Andhra Pradesh, where it has no presence for now.
The TDP MLAs-turned-BJP members in the assembly, with the support of the central leadership, will start creating troubles for the Jagan government in the coming years. In place of the TDP, they will start playing the role of opposition and attacking Jagan.
In the meantime, the BJP will expand its organisational network across the state gradually, raising issues of public concern and whipping up communal passions to create a Hindutva vote bank.
The party leaders are said to be already collecting evidences on anti-Hindutva stand of Jagan, so as to cash in on the same in the elections.
"By 2024, the BJP wants to emerge as a strong political force in Andhra. It might not win the next elections, but will be a formidable opposition. And its target is to come to power in AP by 2029," a party source said.
So, wary of BJP’s moves, Mr Jagan!
(Venkat Arikatla can be reached at venkat@greatandhra.com)