Several prominent studies, surveys, and opinion polls conducted in Telangana concluded that the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and its leader K Chandrashekar Rao are still the people’s favourite and the BRS is on their way to registering a victory for the third time.
Political Reconnaissance Study by Mission Chanakya, a reputed political research and analysis agency, Facts Marketing and Research Services opinion poll, and the India TV survey were the first to ascertain these trends, the mood of the people, and the winning and losing sides in the epic political battle.
Other surveys done by the end of the election campaign in November predicted a swing towards BRS with the Congress losing ground during the last leg. The BJP on the other hand gained only a bit with the incessant bombardment of public meetings with its national leaders including the Prime Minister who camped in Hyderabad for two days.
Mission Chanakya
Mission Chanakya study forecasted a victory for the BRS with 73 plus 3 seats, relegating the Congress to second position with 23 plus 2 seats, the BJP with 7 plus 2 seats, the AIMIM (All India Majlis e Ittehadul Muslimeen) with 7 seats, and others with 2 seats.
The latest Political Reconnaissance Study Report furnished by Mission Chanakya said that BRS would lead with a promising 44.62 percent. The Congress scored 32.71 percent, slightly improving from the earlier survey result of 28.19 percent. On the other hand, the BJP would garner a share of 17.6 percent, a dip from 22.7 percent indicating a serious dent in the share of votes. Others including the AIMIM had a share of 5.07 votes.
The BRS seemed to be a huge favourite among the women voters with 50.32 percent of them indicating their support. This was a significant factor that decided the BRS's victory when we compared the support to BRS from male voters which stood at 38.91 percent. The Congress had a 31.65 percent share of women’s vote men stood at 33.76 percent. The BJP secured 15.05 percent of women's votes and 20.14 percent of men's votes.
Young preferred the BRS A look at the age groups and their preferences, the BRS stood first among the young voters in the age group of 18-25. A notable aspect was that the preference increased with age. Among the voters aged 18-25, 38.01 percent showed an inclination toward the BRS government. Among the age groups, 41.3 percent of voters aged 26-35 years, 43.02 percent of voters aged 36-45, 46.72 percent of voters aged 46-55, and 48.01 percent of voters aged 56-65, and 50.64 percent for those aged over 65 years supported the BRS.
BRS was preferred by 45.97 percent of BCs (Backward Classes), 41.2 percent of OCs (Open Category), 43.17 percent of SCs (Scheduled Castes), 44.45 percent of STs (Scheduled Tribes), and 48.31 percent of minorities. The Congress was preferred by 26.7 percent of BCs, 29.62 percent of OCs, 33.67 percent of SCs, 37.16 percent of STs, and 36.41 percent of minorities. The BJP was preferred by 24.6 percent of BCs, 24.89 percent of OCs, 16.6 percent of SCs, 16.41 percent of STs, and a mere 5.52 percent of minorities. The weak and differently-abled preferred the BRS.
The appeal of the BRS among a cross-section of voters based on occupation also put the BRS on the top with 52.13 percent of Aasara pensioners, 50 percent of homemakers, academic institutions, and differently-abled individuals supporting the BRS. 48.52 percent of farmers, 44.14 percent, and 38.95 percent of laborers and private employees supported the BRS. The study revealed that the BRS had a hold on 14 out of the 17 Loksabha constituencies in the State. The Congress has its hold in the Peddapalli, Nalgonda, and Khammam constituencies.
Facts Marketing Research Services
The Survey was done through a structured questionnaire random sampling method from October 12 to October 20. The survey predicted a thumping victory for the BRS with 70-76 seats, the Congress with 24-30 seats, the BJP with 6-10 seats, AIMIM with 7-8 seats, and others with 1. The vote share according to the survey was: BRS 42.5 percent, Congress 33.1 percent, BJP 16 .3 percent, AIMIM 2.9 percent, CPI and CPM 0.9 percent, BSP 2.4 percent, and undecided 1.9 percent.
The study also looked into two other parameters the performance of the Chief Minister and also Government’s performance. While 36.9 percent of the voters surveyed said that the performance of KCR was good, 37.2 percent said average, 24.3 percent said it was bad and 1.6 percent said that they were not sure of it. When it came to State Government’s performance 31.9 percent said it was good, 38.7 percent said it was average, 27.3 percent said it was bad and the remaining were undecided.
India Today
The India Today survey also forecast a decisive victory for the BRS. The TV said that if elections were held right away in Telangana, the BRS would win 70 seats a loss of 18 seats, the BJP would win 7 a gain of 6 seats, the Congress would win 34, a gain of 15 seats, AIMIM would win 7 and others only 1, a loss of 3 seats.
Newstap
The Newstap Telangana State survey report forecast a comfortable victory for the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) to register a hattrick. The survey was based on a sample size of 1,19,000, conducted by professionals from November 16 to November 21.
The BRS is aiming for a hat-trick in the upcoming elections, yet it faces anti-incumbency sentiments within certain voter groups: the youth, students, and a section of those who did not benefit from the sanctioned schemes like double-bedroom housing, farm loan waivers, and unemployment financial assistance.
This setback could cause the BRS to drop significantly from 88 seats in the 2018 elections to 65 - 76 seats in 2023. Despite the Congress party’s efforts to shape negative narratives about the BRS, which are being served to voters as incomplete information, the only anti-BRS voter bloc is considering other options. However, overall, the BRS is expected to form the government with over 70 seats.
Congress: There's a sense of confusion among people regarding the leadership within the Congress, particularly concerning who would become the Chief Minister, just in case it manages to secure the magic figure, according to the survey. People believe that a Congress-led government would be unstable due to the lack of clear leadership in the state, potentially leading most MLAs to defect to a more stable political party.
According to the survey, the Congress has seen a significant increase in both vote share and seats but has fallen short of securing the magic figure. The survey findings indicate that people perceive their flagship '6-Guarantees' as an upgraded version of the BRS schemes currently in place, raising concerns that choosing the Congress might pose a risk. Their track record and the unstable government situation in Karnataka further discouraged support for the Congress, as people are not confident about their promises.
CSDP
The pre-poll survey done by another research organisation CSDP while predicting an emphatic victory for the BRS said that it would win 83 seats, the Congress would reach up to 27, the BJP would win two seats and the MIM would retain seven seats. In Hyderabad, the BRS would win 8 seats. Out of the 83 seats that the BRS was slated to win, it got a strong lead in 12, a marginal lead in 48, and a tug-of-war with the Congress or BJP in 41 seats.
The survey found that the Congress was strong in eastern Telangana (7 out of 27) and the BJP could give a tough fight to the BRS in only two seats.
ABP C Voter
INC is expected to secure between 43 to 55 seats.
BJP is projected to win between 5 to 11 seats.
BRS, the ruling alliance, is anticipated to secure between 49 to 61 seats.
The "Others" category, including AIMIM, is projected to gain between 4 to 10 seats.
The ABP News C-Voter Survey for November indicated a significant shift in political dynamics, with the Indian National Congress (INC) giving tough competition to the ruling party. According to the survey, the grand old party is poised to make significant gains in both votes and seats in the state, while the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) may face a significant challenge.
In terms of votes, the Chandrashekar Rao-led BRS, which dominated the last election with 46.9 percent of the votes, is projected to dominate the vote share this year as well by securing 40.5 percent of the votes, experiencing a swing of -6.4 percent.
According to the survey, Congress has witnessed a substantial swing in its favour. In the last election, the party secured 28.3 percent of the votes, but the current projection suggests that it is likely to receive 39.4 percent of the votes, reflecting a remarkable swing of 11.1 percent. This surge in support is expected to boost the Congress's prospects in the upcoming election.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which secured 7.0 percent of the votes in the previous election, is also set to make gains. The current projection places the BJP at 14.3 percent, indicating a swing of 7.3 percent in their favour.
India TV CNX
Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is going to retain power with a reduced majority in next month's Assembly elections, says India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, results of the opinion poll were telecast on October 2 on the news channel.
The opinion poll projections show, that in a House of 119 Assembly seats, the BRS may win 70 seats, compared to 88 seats it had won five years ago.
The Congress may win 34 seats, compared to only 19 seats it had won five years ago, says the survey. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the third big contender, may win only seven seats, compared to one seat it had won last time.
AIMIM is also likely to win seven seats. It had won the same number of seats last time. Only one remaining seat may go to independents clubbed as ‘Others’, compared to four seats they had won in 2018.
Vote share projections show the BRS may get 43 percent votes, the Congress may get 37 percent, the BJP may get 11 percent, the AIMIM may get 3 percent, and 'Others' may get 6 percent votes.
PRISM
Prism Political consultancy service in its pre-poll survey predicted an emphatic victory for the BRS.
BRS is projected to win 71-76 seats due to positive trends in their favour
KCR, KTR's popularity rising through public meetings
Support from kye voter groups like women and the elderly
Possible disgruntlement among youth and Dalits
Congress expected to gain 34-39 seats with improved vote share
BJP expected to do better than 2018 elections, might win 3-4 seats
AIMIM likely to regain seven seats
Tight contest in five seats
South First
KCR is still the favourite leader
The survey forecasted that the Congress would win the Telangana Assembly elections with leads in an estimated 57-62 seats, while the BRS is projected at 41-46.
However, almost 40 percent of respondents still prefer BRS chief K Chandrashekar Rao as their chief minister.
Among others, two faces from the grand old party, Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC) chief A Revanth Reddy was chosen by 22 percent of the respondents, while the party’s Assembly floor leader Bhatti Vikramarka was preferred by 11 percent.
South First–Peoples Pulse Pre-poll Survey seats share projections for Telangana’s 119-seat Assembly show Congress has an edge in 57 to 62 seats. BRS is projected to have a lead in 41 to 46 seats. BJP is projected to have an edge in 3 to 6 seats and AIMIM in 6 to 7 seats. Others are likely to win 1-2 seats.
Pre-poll Survey shows a vote share gap — over four percent — between the BRS and the Congress.
Congress is projected to get 42.5 percent, while the ruling BRS is projected to get 37.6 percent.
The key factors influencing voters’ preferences seem to be the implementation failure of two flagship schemes of the BRS government — Dalit Bandhu and double-bedroom houses — apart from a sense of fatigue.